Experiment 02 · Progressive

Round by round. Twenty forecasters.

Each model re-forecasts the FIFA World Cup 2026 bracket after every stage, using completed matches as new context. Below is what every model called at the end — champion, runner-up, third place, top scorer — and how accurate those calls turned out to be over all 104 matches.

Champion

Spain

Runner-up

Argentina

Third

England

Top scorer

Kylian Mbappe

#	Model	Accuracy	Champion	Runner-up	Third	Top scorer
	Claude Haiku 4.5	41.8%	ARG	ESP	FRA	Lionel Messi9
	Qwen 3.7 Plus	41.8%	ESP	ARG	FRA	Lionel Messi8
	Llama 3.3 70B	41.3%	ARG	ESP	FRA	Lionel Messi9
04	Claude Opus 4.8	40.9%	ESP	ARG	FRA	Kylian Mbappe9
05	Mistral Large	40.9%	ESP	ARG	FRA	Lionel Messi9
06	DeepSeek R1 0528	40.9%	ARG	ESP	FRA	Kylian Mbappe9
07	Gemini 2.5 Pro	40.4%	ESP	ARG	FRA	Kylian Mbappe8
08	Perplexity Sonar	39.9%	ARG	ESP	FRA	Lionel Messi9
09	Llama 4 Maverick	39.4%	ESP	ARG	FRA	Lionel Messi8
10	Claude Sonnet 4.6	38.9%	ESP	ARG	FRA	Kylian Mbappe8
11	GPT-5.5	38.5%	ESP	ARG	FRA	Lionel Messi8
12	GPT-5 Mini	38.5%	ESP	ARG	FRA	Kylian Mbappe8
13	Gemini 2.5 Flash	38.5%	ARG	ESP	ENG	Lionel Messi12
14	Qwen 3.7 Max	38.5%	ESP	ARG	FRA	Lionel Messi8
15	DeepSeek V4 Pro	38.5%	ESP	ARG	FRA	Kylian Mbappe8
16	Grok 4.20	37.5%	ESP	ARG	FRA	Lionel Messi12
17	Moonshot Kimi K2.6	37.0%	ESP	ARG	FRA	Kylian Mbappe8
18	Gemini 2.5 Flash Lite	36.1%	ARG	ESP	FRA	Kylian Mbappe9
19	Mixtral 8x22B	35.6%	ARG	ESP	FRA	Lionel Messi11
20	GPT-5 Nano	34.1%	ESP	ARG	FRA	Kylian Mbappe9

Accuracy over time

Cumulative match-prediction accuracy after each round. Exact score = 1 point, correct winner = 0.5, wrong = 0. Hover a legend chip to isolate a model.

Group stage · real results

Click any group to see how the 20 models predicted each match.

#	Team	Pts
1	MEX	9
2	RSA	4
3	KOR	3
4	CZE	1

#	Team	Pts
1	SUI	7
2	CAN	4
3	BIH	4
4	QAT	1

#	Team	Pts
1	BRA	7
2	MAR	7
3	SCO	3
4	HAI	0

#	Team	Pts
1	USA	6
2	AUS	4
3	PAR	4
4	TUR	3

#	Team	Pts
1	GER	6
2	CIV	6
3	ECU	4
4	CUW	1

#	Team	Pts
1	NED	7
2	JPN	5
3	SWE	4
4	TUN	0

#	Team	Pts
1	BEL	5
2	EGY	5
3	IRN	3
4	NZL	1

#	Team	Pts
1	ESP	7
2	CPV	3
3	URU	2
4	KSA	2

#	Team	Pts
1	NOR	9
2	FRA	6
3	SEN	3
4	IRQ	0

#	Team	Pts
1	ARG	6
2	AUT	4
3	ALG	4
4	JOR	3

#	Team	Pts
1	COL	7
2	POR	5
3	COD	4
4	UZB	0

#	Team	Pts
1	ENG	7
2	CRO	6
3	GHA	4
4	PAN	0

Knockout bracket · real results

Click any match to compare all 20 model predictions with the actual outcome.

Round of 32

16 matches

Round of 16

8 matches

Quarter-finals

4 matches

Semi-finals

2 matches

3rd place

1 match

Final

1 match

Champion

Spain

3rd place

England

Round of 32

Round of 16

Quarter-finals

Semi-finals

3rd place

Final

Champion

Spain

3rd place

England