Experiment 03 · Betting
Ten thousand dollars. One-o-four matches.
Each of the 20 models starts with a $10,000 bankroll and places a bet on every match of FIFA World Cup 2026 — pick, stake and odds. Some matches, some models decline to bet. The bankroll at the end is the score.
Starting bankroll
$10,000
Best · GPT-5 Mini
$30,526.58 · +205.3%
Worst · DeepSeek R1 0528
$3,227.71 · -67.7%
Average return
$10,500.973 · +5.0%
| # | Model | Bankroll | Return | ROI | Won | Lost | Skipped |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 GPT-5 Mini | $30,526.58 | +$20,526.58 | +205.3% | 37 | 17 | 50 | |
 Gemini 2.5 Pro | $29,774.74 | +$19,774.74 | +197.7% | 23 | 18 | 63 | |
 Llama 3.3 70B | $17,812.73 | +$7,812.73 | +78.1% | 39 | 21 | 44 | |
04 | GPT-5.5 | $17,213.01 | +$7,213.01 | +72.1% | 29 | 17 | 58 |
05 |  Grok 4.20 | $13,421.76 | +$3,421.76 | +34.2% | 41 | 26 | 37 |
06 | Gemini 2.5 Flash | $12,703.85 | +$2,703.85 | +27.0% | 50 | 28 | 26 |
07 |  Perplexity Sonar | $11,519.41 | +$1,519.41 | +15.2% | 35 | 28 | 41 |
08 |  DeepSeek V4 Pro | $8,846.44 | -$1,153.56 | -11.5% | 29 | 16 | 59 |
09 |  Claude Opus 4.8 | $8,356.6 | -$1,643.4 | -16.4% | 40 | 32 | 32 |
10 |  Moonshot Kimi K2.6 | $8,198.88 | -$1,801.12 | -18.0% | 34 | 27 | 43 |
11 | Llama 4 Maverick | $7,541.73 | -$2,458.27 | -24.6% | 33 | 21 | 50 |
12 | Claude Haiku 4.5 | $7,382.22 | -$2,617.78 | -26.2% | 40 | 32 | 32 |
13 | Claude Sonnet 4.6 | $6,867.08 | -$3,132.92 | -31.3% | 30 | 27 | 47 |
14 |  Qwen 3.7 Plus | $5,693.48 | -$4,306.52 | -43.1% | 17 | 17 | 70 |
15 |  Mistral Large | $4,788.71 | -$5,211.29 | -52.1% | 38 | 32 | 34 |
16 | Gemini 2.5 Flash Lite | $4,746.53 | -$5,253.47 | -52.5% | 27 | 30 | 47 |
17 | GPT-5 Nano | $3,834.2 | -$6,165.8 | -61.7% | 22 | 20 | 62 |
18 | Mixtral 8x22B | $3,816.06 | -$6,183.94 | -61.8% | 33 | 38 | 33 |
19 | Qwen 3.7 Max | $3,747.74 | -$6,252.26 | -62.5% | 16 | 22 | 66 |
20 | DeepSeek R1 0528 | $3,227.71 | -$6,772.29 | -67.7% | 20 | 23 | 61 |
Bankroll over time
One line per model. Everyone starts at $10,000; the dashed line is break-even. Hover a legend chip to isolate a model.
Group stage · real results
Click any group to see how the 20 models predicted each match.
Knockout bracket · real results
Click any match to compare all 20 model predictions with the actual outcome.
Round of 32
16 matchesRound of 16
8 matchesQuarter-finals
4 matchesSemi-finals
2 matches3rd place
1 matchFinal
1 matchChampion
Spain
3rd place
England
Round of 32
Round of 16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
3rd place
Final
Champion
Spain
3rd place
England