Experiment 04b · GPT vs Gemini · Progressive
Two engines. Two hundred tournaments. Round-by-round.
GPT and Gemini re-forecast the 2026 World Cup after every completed round. Each engine ran the tournament 100 times with the same prompt.
Reality
Champion
Spain
Runner-up
Argentina
Third
England
Top scorer
Kylian Mbappé · 10
GPT vs Gemini · accuracy over time
Average of 100 simulations per engine. Cumulative match-prediction accuracy after each round. Exact score = 1, correct winner = 0.5, wrong = 0.
Per-engine breakdown
GPT-5 Nano
100 simulations
Avg accuracy
32.4%
Most common champions
- 1Spain97%
- 2Argentina3%
Most common tournament MVPs
- 1Kylian Mbappe684×
- 2Neymar443×
- 3Lionel Messi414×
- 4Christian Pulisic378×
- 5Vinicius Jr334×
Top 5 scorers · aggregated
- 1Kylian Mbappe5.8 g/tourn
- 2Kai Havertz4.9 g/tourn
- 3Romelu Lukaku4.7 g/tourn
- 4Lionel Messi4.6 g/tourn
- 5Neymar4.6 g/tourn
Top 5 assistmen · aggregated
- 1Ousmane Dembele4.6 a/tourn
- 2Kevin De Bruyne4.2 a/tourn
- 3Bukayo Saka3.9 a/tourn
- 4Vinicius Jr3.9 a/tourn
- 5Pedri3.8 a/tourn
Gemini 2.5 Flash Lite
100 simulations
Avg accuracy
31.8%
Most common champions
- 1Spain69%
- 2Argentina31%
Most common tournament MVPs
- 1Kylian Mbappe754×
- 2Vinicius Jr463×
- 3Lionel Messi414×
- 4Kevin De Bruyne410×
- 5Granit Xhaka384×
Top 5 scorers · aggregated
- 1Kylian Mbappe7.1 g/tourn
- 2Vinicius Jr6.7 g/tourn
- 3Ousmane Dembele6.6 g/tourn
- 4Neymar6.4 g/tourn
- 5Romelu Lukaku5.9 g/tourn
Top 5 assistmen · aggregated
- 1Joshua Kimmich4.9 a/tourn
- 2Alexis Mac Allister4.7 a/tourn
- 3Bernardo Silva4.6 a/tourn
- 4Tajon Buchanan4.5 a/tourn
- 5Orbelin Pineda4.5 a/tourn
All 200 runs
Click any row to see the full tournament prediction| Run | Engine | Accuracy | Top scorer | MVP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #098 | GPT-5 Nano | 37.0% | Erling Haaland5 | Vinicius Jr |
| #066 | GPT-5 Nano | 36.5% | Enner Valencia5 | Vinicius Jr |
| #090 | GPT-5 Nano | 35.6% | Santiago Gimenez7 | Neymar |
| #001 | GPT-5 Nano | 35.1% | Kylian Mbappe9 | Vinicius Jr |
| #023 | GPT-5 Nano | 35.1% | Kylian Mbappe6 | Neymar |
| #047 | GPT-5 Nano | 35.1% | Kylian Mbappe7 | Neymar |
| #087 | GPT-5 Nano | 35.1% | Jonathan David6 | Neymar |
| #088 | GPT-5 Nano | 35.1% | Erling Haaland6 | Vinicius Jr |
| #089 | GPT-5 Nano | 35.1% | Kylian Mbappe7 | Neymar |
| #020 | Gemini 2.5 Flash Lite | 35.1% | Kai Havertz7 | Kylian Mbappe |
| #036 | Gemini 2.5 Flash Lite | 35.1% | Jamal Musiala7 | Kylian Mbappe |
| #085 | Gemini 2.5 Flash Lite | 35.1% | Kylian Mbappe8 | Neymar |
| #053 | GPT-5 Nano | 34.6% | Harry Kane6 | Vinicius Jr |
| #054 | GPT-5 Nano | 34.6% | Kylian Mbappe5 | Vinicius Jr |
| #063 | GPT-5 Nano | 34.6% | Lionel Messi5 | Vinicius Jr |
| #070 | GPT-5 Nano | 34.6% | Erling Haaland5 | Neymar |
| #074 | GPT-5 Nano | 34.6% | Kylian Mbappe5 | Neymar |
| #086 | GPT-5 Nano | 34.6% | Kylian Mbappe6 | Vinicius Jr |
| #049 | Gemini 2.5 Flash Lite | 34.6% | Kylian Mbappe8 | Kylian Mbappe |
| #072 | Gemini 2.5 Flash Lite | 34.6% | Kylian Mbappe7 | Kylian Mbappe |
| #014 | GPT-5 Nano | 34.1% | Santiago Gimenez9 | Vinicius Jr |
| #020 | GPT-5 Nano | 34.1% | Kylian Mbappe9 | Pedri |
| #032 | GPT-5 Nano | 34.1% | Kylian Mbappe6 | Jamal Musiala |
| #036 | GPT-5 Nano | 34.1% | Kai Havertz6 | Neymar |
| #044 | GPT-5 Nano | 34.1% | Kylian Mbappe6 | Neymar |
| #069 | GPT-5 Nano | 34.1% | Kylian Mbappe9 | Vinicius Jr |
| #078 | GPT-5 Nano | 34.1% | Romelu Lukaku5 | Vinicius Jr |
| #079 | GPT-5 Nano | 34.1% | Salem Al Dawsari5 | Vinicius Jr |
| #099 | GPT-5 Nano | 34.1% | Romelu Lukaku7 | Neymar |
| #015 | Gemini 2.5 Flash Lite | 34.1% | Kylian Mbappe8 | Kylian Mbappe |
| #025 | Gemini 2.5 Flash Lite | 34.1% | Kylian Mbappe7 | Neymar |
| #034 | Gemini 2.5 Flash Lite | 34.1% | Erling Haaland7 | Kylian Mbappe |
| #056 | Gemini 2.5 Flash Lite | 34.1% | Kylian Mbappe7 | Kylian Mbappe |
| #004 | GPT-5 Nano | 33.7% | Romelu Lukaku5 | Neymar |
| #021 | GPT-5 Nano | 33.7% | Kai Havertz8 | Kylian Mbappe |
| #092 | GPT-5 Nano | 33.7% | Vinicius Jr6 | Kylian Mbappe |
| #095 | GPT-5 Nano | 33.7% | Kylian Mbappe8 | Vinicius Jr |
| #029 | Gemini 2.5 Flash Lite | 33.7% | Florian Wirtz7 | Kylian Mbappe |
| #030 | Gemini 2.5 Flash Lite | 33.7% | Harry Kane7 | Kylian Mbappe |
| #035 | Gemini 2.5 Flash Lite | 33.7% | Kylian Mbappe8 | Kylian Mbappe |
| #048 | Gemini 2.5 Flash Lite | 33.7% | Kylian Mbappe7 | Neymar |
| #096 | Gemini 2.5 Flash Lite | 33.7% | Vinicius Jr8 | Kylian Mbappe |
| #099 | Gemini 2.5 Flash Lite | 33.7% | Kai Havertz7 | Kylian Mbappe |
| #005 | GPT-5 Nano | 33.2% | Cristiano Ronaldo6 | Vinicius Jr |
| #016 | GPT-5 Nano | 33.2% | Kylian Mbappe6 | Vinicius Jr |
| #031 | GPT-5 Nano | 33.2% | Kai Havertz7 | Vinicius Jr |
| #045 | GPT-5 Nano | 33.2% | Romelu Lukaku6 | Neymar |
| #072 | GPT-5 Nano | 33.2% | Christian Pulisic5 | Neymar |
| #080 | GPT-5 Nano | 33.2% | Kylian Mbappe8 | Vinicius Jr |
| #100 | GPT-5 Nano | 33.2% | Kylian Mbappe7 | Vinicius Jr |
| #021 | Gemini 2.5 Flash Lite | 33.2% | Jonathan David7 | Neymar |
| #024 | Gemini 2.5 Flash Lite | 33.2% | Franck Kessie8 | Kylian Mbappe |
| #032 | Gemini 2.5 Flash Lite | 33.2% | Vinicius Jr8 | Neymar |
| #046 | Gemini 2.5 Flash Lite | 33.2% | Vinicius Jr8 | Kylian Mbappe |
| #050 | Gemini 2.5 Flash Lite | 33.2% | Kylian Mbappe7 | Kylian Mbappe |
| #076 | Gemini 2.5 Flash Lite | 33.2% | Enner Valencia7 | Kylian Mbappe |
| #082 | Gemini 2.5 Flash Lite | 33.2% | Enner Valencia7 | Kylian Mbappe |
| #083 | Gemini 2.5 Flash Lite | 33.2% | Kylian Mbappe9 | Neymar |
| #009 | GPT-5 Nano | 32.7% | Kylian Mbappe8 | Neymar |
| #017 | GPT-5 Nano | 32.7% | Romelu Lukaku8 | Vinicius Jr |
| #022 | GPT-5 Nano | 32.7% | Goncalo Ramos6 | Neymar |
| #035 | GPT-5 Nano | 32.7% | Kylian Mbappe7 | Vinicius Jr |
| #037 | GPT-5 Nano | 32.7% | Harry Kane8 | Vinicius Jr |
| #039 | GPT-5 Nano | 32.7% | Kylian Mbappe8 | Vinicius Jr |
| #042 | GPT-5 Nano | 32.7% | Christian Pulisic5 | Vinicius Jr |
| #048 | GPT-5 Nano | 32.7% | Breel Embolo5 | Neymar |
| #058 | GPT-5 Nano | 32.7% | Salem Al Dawsari5 | Vinicius Jr |
| #060 | GPT-5 Nano | 32.7% | Kylian Mbappe6 | Vinicius Jr |
| #062 | GPT-5 Nano | 32.7% | Kylian Mbappe5 | Neymar |
| #071 | GPT-5 Nano | 32.7% | Kai Havertz6 | Vinicius Jr |
| #082 | GPT-5 Nano | 32.7% | Harry Kane5 | Vinicius Jr |
| #093 | GPT-5 Nano | 32.7% | Harry Kane6 | Vinicius Jr |
| #012 | Gemini 2.5 Flash Lite | 32.7% | Kylian Mbappe7 | Neymar |
| #013 | Gemini 2.5 Flash Lite | 32.7% | Kylian Mbappe8 | Neymar |
| #018 | Gemini 2.5 Flash Lite | 32.7% | Jonathan David7 | Kylian Mbappe |
| #026 | Gemini 2.5 Flash Lite | 32.7% | Kylian Mbappe7 | Kylian Mbappe |
| #037 | Gemini 2.5 Flash Lite | 32.7% | Jamal Musiala7 | Kylian Mbappe |
| #042 | Gemini 2.5 Flash Lite | 32.7% | Lautaro Martinez7 | Jamal Musiala |
| #053 | Gemini 2.5 Flash Lite | 32.7% | Vinicius Jr8 | Kylian Mbappe |
| #055 | Gemini 2.5 Flash Lite | 32.7% | Kylian Mbappe8 | Kylian Mbappe |
| #066 | Gemini 2.5 Flash Lite | 32.7% | Kylian Mbappe7 | Kylian Mbappe |
| #069 | Gemini 2.5 Flash Lite | 32.7% | Kylian Mbappe8 | Kylian Mbappe |
| #077 | Gemini 2.5 Flash Lite | 32.7% | Jamal Musiala7 | Kylian Mbappe |
| #089 | Gemini 2.5 Flash Lite | 32.7% | Kylian Mbappe8 | Kylian Mbappe |
| #002 | GPT-5 Nano | 32.2% | Kylian Mbappe9 | Vinicius Jr |
| #007 | GPT-5 Nano | 32.2% | Kylian Mbappe9 | Vinicius Jr |
| #008 | GPT-5 Nano | 32.2% | Lionel Messi6 | Neymar |
| #013 | GPT-5 Nano | 32.2% | Kylian Mbappe5 | Vinicius Jr |
| #033 | GPT-5 Nano | 32.2% | Arda Guler5 | Vinicius Jr |
| #038 | GPT-5 Nano | 32.2% | Breel Embolo5 | Neymar |
| #052 | GPT-5 Nano | 32.2% | Alexander Isak6 | Vinicius Jr |
| #057 | GPT-5 Nano | 32.2% | Edin Dzeko6 | Neymar |
| #065 | GPT-5 Nano | 32.2% | Erling Haaland5 | Neymar |
| #067 | GPT-5 Nano | 32.2% | Kylian Mbappe8 | Vinicius Jr |
| #073 | GPT-5 Nano | 32.2% | Abdessamad Ezzalzouli4 | Vinicius Jr |
| #076 | GPT-5 Nano | 32.2% | Kylian Mbappe7 | Neymar |
| #084 | GPT-5 Nano | 32.2% | Kylian Mbappe6 | Vinicius Jr |
| #094 | GPT-5 Nano | 32.2% | Erling Haaland7 | Vinicius Jr |
| #001 | Gemini 2.5 Flash Lite | 32.2% | Kylian Mbappe7 | Kylian Mbappe |
| #004 | Gemini 2.5 Flash Lite | 32.2% | Kylian Mbappe7 | Kylian Mbappe |
| #011 | Gemini 2.5 Flash Lite | 32.2% | Kylian Mbappe7 | Kylian Mbappe |
| #027 | Gemini 2.5 Flash Lite | 32.2% | Jamal Musiala7 | Kylian Mbappe |
| #033 | Gemini 2.5 Flash Lite | 32.2% | Jamal Musiala7 | Neymar |
| #054 | Gemini 2.5 Flash Lite | 32.2% | Vinicius Jr8 | Neymar |
| #059 | Gemini 2.5 Flash Lite | 32.2% | Enner Valencia7 | Neymar |
| #062 | Gemini 2.5 Flash Lite | 32.2% | Enner Valencia7 | Vinicius Jr |
| #073 | Gemini 2.5 Flash Lite | 32.2% | Kylian Mbappe7 | Kylian Mbappe |
| #079 | Gemini 2.5 Flash Lite | 32.2% | Kylian Mbappe7 | Kylian Mbappe |
| #081 | Gemini 2.5 Flash Lite | 32.2% | Vinicius Jr8 | Kylian Mbappe |
| #088 | Gemini 2.5 Flash Lite | 32.2% | Kylian Mbappe8 | Kylian Mbappe |
| #090 | Gemini 2.5 Flash Lite | 32.2% | Kylian Mbappe7 | Kylian Mbappe |
| #098 | Gemini 2.5 Flash Lite | 32.2% | Bruno Fernandes7 | Bruno Fernandes |
| #019 | GPT-5 Nano | 31.7% | Harry Kane6 | Neymar |
| #026 | GPT-5 Nano | 31.7% | Kylian Mbappe6 | Vinicius Jr |
| #027 | GPT-5 Nano | 31.7% | Kylian Mbappe6 | Vinicius Jr |
| #028 | GPT-5 Nano | 31.7% | Kylian Mbappe7 | Kylian Mbappe |
| #050 | GPT-5 Nano | 31.7% | Kylian Mbappe8 | Neymar |
| #061 | GPT-5 Nano | 31.7% | Alexander Isak4 | Neymar |
| #077 | GPT-5 Nano | 31.7% | Kai Havertz5 | Vinicius Jr |
| #096 | GPT-5 Nano | 31.7% | Alexander Isak4 | Neymar |
| #040 | Gemini 2.5 Flash Lite | 31.7% | Florian Wirtz7 | Kylian Mbappe |
| #058 | Gemini 2.5 Flash Lite | 31.7% | Kylian Mbappe8 | Kylian Mbappe |
| #061 | Gemini 2.5 Flash Lite | 31.7% | Kylian Mbappe8 | Kylian Mbappe |
| #063 | Gemini 2.5 Flash Lite | 31.7% | Enner Valencia7 | Kylian Mbappe |
| #071 | Gemini 2.5 Flash Lite | 31.7% | Vinicius Jr8 | Kylian Mbappe |
| #086 | Gemini 2.5 Flash Lite | 31.7% | Kylian Mbappe7 | Kylian Mbappe |
| #093 | Gemini 2.5 Flash Lite | 31.7% | Kylian Mbappe7 | Kylian Mbappe |
| #094 | Gemini 2.5 Flash Lite | 31.7% | Kylian Mbappe8 | Kylian Mbappe |
| #011 | GPT-5 Nano | 31.3% | Kai Havertz7 | Neymar |
| #018 | GPT-5 Nano | 31.3% | Ayoub El Kaabi5 | Neymar |
| #024 | GPT-5 Nano | 31.3% | Che Adams6 | Vinicius Jr |
| #040 | GPT-5 Nano | 31.3% | Romelu Lukaku9 | Vinicius Jr |
| #049 | GPT-5 Nano | 31.3% | Kylian Mbappe7 | Neymar |
| #055 | GPT-5 Nano | 31.3% | Arda Guler4 | Vinicius Jr |
| #075 | GPT-5 Nano | 31.3% | Christian Pulisic5 | Vinicius Jr |
| #007 | Gemini 2.5 Flash Lite | 31.3% | Enner Valencia7 | Kylian Mbappe |
| #008 | Gemini 2.5 Flash Lite | 31.3% | Enner Valencia7 | Kylian Mbappe |
| #022 | Gemini 2.5 Flash Lite | 31.3% | Kylian Mbappe7 | Kylian Mbappe |
| #028 | Gemini 2.5 Flash Lite | 31.3% | Enner Valencia7 | Kylian Mbappe |
| #044 | Gemini 2.5 Flash Lite | 31.3% | Jonathan David7 | Kylian Mbappe |
| #045 | Gemini 2.5 Flash Lite | 31.3% | Florian Wirtz7 | Kylian Mbappe |
| #067 | Gemini 2.5 Flash Lite | 31.3% | Jonathan David7 | Jamal Musiala |
| #095 | Gemini 2.5 Flash Lite | 31.3% | Neymar8 | Neymar |
| #003 | GPT-5 Nano | 30.8% | Kylian Mbappe9 | Neymar |
| #029 | GPT-5 Nano | 30.8% | Christian Pulisic5 | Vinicius Jr |
| #056 | GPT-5 Nano | 30.8% | Kylian Mbappe7 | Vinicius Jr |
| #064 | GPT-5 Nano | 30.8% | Kylian Mbappe6 | Neymar |
| #083 | GPT-5 Nano | 30.8% | Erling Haaland5 | Vinicius Jr |
| #085 | GPT-5 Nano | 30.8% | Erling Haaland5 | Vinicius Jr |
| #091 | GPT-5 Nano | 30.8% | Kylian Mbappe5 | Neymar |
| #002 | Gemini 2.5 Flash Lite | 30.8% | Vinicius Jr8 | Neymar |
| #003 | Gemini 2.5 Flash Lite | 30.8% | Kylian Mbappe7 | Kylian Mbappe |
| #005 | Gemini 2.5 Flash Lite | 30.8% | Florian Wirtz7 | Kylian Mbappe |
| #006 | Gemini 2.5 Flash Lite | 30.8% | Cody Gakpo7 | Neymar |
| #009 | Gemini 2.5 Flash Lite | 30.8% | Kylian Mbappe7 | Kylian Mbappe |
| #014 | Gemini 2.5 Flash Lite | 30.8% | Florian Wirtz7 | Kylian Mbappe |
| #019 | Gemini 2.5 Flash Lite | 30.8% | Kylian Mbappe8 | Neymar |
| #041 | Gemini 2.5 Flash Lite | 30.8% | Kai Havertz7 | Kylian Mbappe |
| #057 | Gemini 2.5 Flash Lite | 30.8% | Kai Havertz7 | Kylian Mbappe |
| #070 | Gemini 2.5 Flash Lite | 30.8% | Vinicius Jr8 | Kylian Mbappe |
| #078 | Gemini 2.5 Flash Lite | 30.8% | Neymar8 | Kylian Mbappe |
| #084 | Gemini 2.5 Flash Lite | 30.8% | Florian Wirtz7 | Kylian Mbappe |
| #091 | Gemini 2.5 Flash Lite | 30.8% | Enner Valencia7 | Kylian Mbappe |
| #100 | Gemini 2.5 Flash Lite | 30.8% | Breel Embolo7 | Jamal Musiala |
| #006 | GPT-5 Nano | 30.3% | Kylian Mbappe9 | Vinicius Jr |
| #015 | GPT-5 Nano | 30.3% | Kylian Mbappe6 | Vinicius Jr |
| #034 | GPT-5 Nano | 30.3% | Kylian Mbappe6 | Vinicius Jr |
| #051 | GPT-5 Nano | 30.3% | Cody Gakpo6 | Neymar |
| #059 | GPT-5 Nano | 30.3% | Salem Al Dawsari5 | Vinicius Jr |
| #081 | GPT-5 Nano | 30.3% | Kylian Mbappe7 | Vinicius Jr |
| #023 | Gemini 2.5 Flash Lite | 30.3% | Jonathan David7 | Kylian Mbappe |
| #038 | Gemini 2.5 Flash Lite | 30.3% | Kai Havertz7 | Kylian Mbappe |
| #043 | Gemini 2.5 Flash Lite | 30.3% | Jonathan David7 | Kylian Mbappe |
| #060 | Gemini 2.5 Flash Lite | 30.3% | Kylian Mbappe10 | Kylian Mbappe |
| #065 | Gemini 2.5 Flash Lite | 30.3% | Vinicius Jr8 | Kylian Mbappe |
| #075 | Gemini 2.5 Flash Lite | 30.3% | Lionel Messi7 | Neymar |
| #092 | Gemini 2.5 Flash Lite | 30.3% | Kylian Mbappe8 | Kylian Mbappe |
| #097 | Gemini 2.5 Flash Lite | 30.3% | Kylian Mbappe8 | Kylian Mbappe |
| #012 | GPT-5 Nano | 29.8% | Kylian Mbappe8 | Neymar |
| #041 | GPT-5 Nano | 29.8% | Enner Valencia6 | Neymar |
| #097 | GPT-5 Nano | 29.8% | Kylian Mbappe6 | Neymar |
| #017 | Gemini 2.5 Flash Lite | 29.8% | Kylian Mbappe8 | Kylian Mbappe |
| #047 | Gemini 2.5 Flash Lite | 29.8% | Florian Wirtz7 | Kylian Mbappe |
| #051 | Gemini 2.5 Flash Lite | 29.8% | Enner Valencia7 | Kylian Mbappe |
| #052 | Gemini 2.5 Flash Lite | 29.8% | Lionel Messi8 | Neymar |
| #064 | Gemini 2.5 Flash Lite | 29.8% | Kylian Mbappe7 | Kylian Mbappe |
| #080 | Gemini 2.5 Flash Lite | 29.8% | Franck Kessie7 | Kylian Mbappe |
| #010 | GPT-5 Nano | 29.3% | Kylian Mbappe7 | Neymar |
| #043 | GPT-5 Nano | 29.3% | Lionel Messi8 | Neymar |
| #068 | GPT-5 Nano | 29.3% | Erling Haaland5 | Vinicius Jr |
| #010 | Gemini 2.5 Flash Lite | 29.3% | Kylian Mbappe8 | Neymar |
| #074 | Gemini 2.5 Flash Lite | 29.3% | Kylian Mbappe7 | Kylian Mbappe |
| #025 | GPT-5 Nano | 28.8% | Kylian Mbappe11 | Neymar |
| #030 | GPT-5 Nano | 28.8% | Cristiano Ronaldo5 | Vinicius Jr |
| #039 | Gemini 2.5 Flash Lite | 28.8% | Sadio Mane8 | Kylian Mbappe |
| #068 | Gemini 2.5 Flash Lite | 28.8% | Kylian Mbappe8 | Kylian Mbappe |
| #087 | Gemini 2.5 Flash Lite | 28.4% | Vinicius Jr8 | Neymar |
| #031 | Gemini 2.5 Flash Lite | 27.9% | Jonathan David7 | Kylian Mbappe |
| #046 | GPT-5 Nano | 27.4% | Edin Dzeko5 | Vinicius Jr |
| #016 | Gemini 2.5 Flash Lite | 27.4% | Kylian Mbappe9 | Neymar |