Experiment 01 · Oracle

One shot. Twenty oracles.

Each model predicts the full FIFA World Cup 2026 bracket once, before the opening match. Below is what every model called — champion, runner-up, third place, top scorer — and how accurate those calls turned out to be over all 104 matches.

Champion

Spain

Runner-up

Argentina

Third

England

Top scorer

Kylian Mbappe

#	Model	Accuracy	Champion	Runner-up	Third	Top scorer
	Llama 4 Maverick	38.0%	BRA	ARG	FRA	Vinicius Jr8
	Qwen 3.7 Plus	38.0%	FRA	ARG	FRA	Vinicius Jr8
	GPT-5 Mini	37.5%	ARG	ESP	FRA	Vinicius Jr8
04	Claude Haiku 4.5	35.1%	BRA	ARG	FRA	Vinicius Jr8
05	Gemini 2.5 Pro	35.1%	BRA	ARG	FRA	Kylian Mbappe10
06	Claude Fable 5	35.1%	ESP	ARG	FRA	Vinicius Jr8
07	Claude Opus 4.8	34.6%	BRA	ESP	FRA	Vinicius Jr8
08	Gemini 2.5 Flash	34.1%	BRA	ESP	FRA	Kylian Mbappe12
09	Moonshot Kimi K2.6	34.1%	BRA	ARG	FRA	Erling Haaland9
10	Llama 3.3 70B	34.1%	ARG	ESP	FRA	Christian Pulisic8
11	Mistral Large	34.1%	BRA	ARG	FRA	Lamine Yamal8
12	Perplexity Sonar	34.1%	FRA	ESP	FRA	Vinicius Jr8
13	Claude Sonnet 4.6	33.7%	ARG	ESP	FRA	Lionel Messi9
14	GPT-5.5	32.7%	ESP	ESP	FRA	Vinicius Jr8
15	Qwen 3.7 Max	32.7%	BRA	ESP	FRA	Kylian Mbappe9
16	DeepSeek V4 Pro	32.7%	ARG	ARG	FRA	Vinicius Jr8
17	Grok 4.20	32.2%	BRA	ARG	FRA	Erling Haaland9
18	GPT-5 Nano	31.7%	BRA	ARG	FRA	Santiago Gimenez5
19	Mixtral 8x22B	31.3%	FRA	ARG	FRA	Vinicius Jr8
20	DeepSeek R1 0528	31.3%	ESP	ESP	FRA	Vinicius Jr7
21	Gemini 2.5 Flash Lite	30.3%	BRA	ESP	FRA	Vinicius Jr9