Experiment 01 · Oracle

One shot. Twenty-one oracles.

Each model predicts the full FIFA World Cup 2026 bracket once, before the opening match. Below is what every model called — champion, runner-up, third place, top scorer — scored by trajectory skill: how closely the tournament it imagined tracked the one that actually happened. Because each model plays its own bracket, there is no shared fixture list to grade its knockout scorelines against.

Champion

Spain

Runner-up

Argentina

Third

England

Top scorer

Kylian Mbappe

#	Model	Trajectory skill	Champion	Runner-up	Third	Top scorer
	GPT-5.5	49.8%	ESP	FRA	BRA	Alexander Isak8
	DeepSeek R1 0528	47.8%	ESP	FRA	BRA	Kylian Mbappe7
	Claude Fable 5	47.8%	ESP	FRA	BRA	Kylian Mbappe8
04	Llama 3.3 70B	47.0%	ARG	ESP	USA	Christian Pulisic8
05	Claude Sonnet 4.6	45.8%	ARG	BRA	ESP	Lionel Messi9
06	GPT-5 Mini	45.3%	ARG	BRA	ESP	Enner Valencia8
07	Grok 4.20	44.9%	BRA	ARG	ESP	Erling Haaland9
08	DeepSeek V4 Pro	42.0%	ARG	BRA	ESP	Lamine Yamal8
09	Qwen 3.7 Max	31.7%	BRA	FRA	ESP	Kylian Mbappe9
10	Mistral Large	31.2%	BRA	FRA	ESP	Kylian Mbappe8
11	Qwen 3.7 Plus	28.1%	FRA	BRA	GER	Kylian Mbappe8
12	Perplexity Sonar	24.9%	FRA	GER	BRA	Kylian Mbappe8
13	Gemini 2.5 Pro	24.8%	BRA	FRA	GER	Kylian Mbappe10
14	Moonshot Kimi K2.6	24.6%	BRA	FRA	GER	Erling Haaland9
15	Gemini 2.5 Flash	24.4%	BRA	FRA	GER	Kylian Mbappe12
16	Claude Haiku 4.5	23.1%	BRA	FRA	GER	Kai Havertz8
17	Claude Opus 4.8	22.2%	BRA	FRA	GER	Kenan Yildiz8
18	Llama 4 Maverick	18.1%	BRA	FRA	GER	Kylian Mbappe8
19	Gemini 2.5 Flash Lite	17.3%	BRA	FRA	BEL	Kylian Mbappe9
20	Mixtral 8x22B	17.1%	FRA	BRA	GER	Kylian Mbappe8
21	GPT-5 Nano	17.0%	BRA	FRA	NED	Raul Jimenez5