← No History Variant
Mistral Large
Mistral
10 independent simulations of the WC26 Final. Numbers below are averaged over the 10 runs (expected values).
Modal score
2–1
70% of runs
xG · Spain
1.70
🇪🇸 Spain
xG · Argentina
0.90
🇦🇷 Argentina
Accuracy vs reality
55.0%
2/10 exact score
Outcome distribution across 10 runs
🇪🇸 Spain: 90%Draw: 0%🇦🇷 Argentina: 10%
Expected scorers
- 1🇪🇸Mikel Oyarzabal1.00 /g10 in 10
- 2🇦🇷Lionel Messi0.80 /g8 in 10
- 3🇪🇸Lamine Yamal0.60 /g6 in 10
- 4🇪🇸Dani Olmo0.10 /g1 in 10
- 5🇦🇷Lautaro Martinez0.10 /g1 in 10
Expected assists
- 1🇦🇷Enzo Fernandez0.80 /g8 in 10
- 2🇪🇸Rodri0.70 /g7 in 10
- 3🇪🇸Dani Olmo0.70 /g7 in 10
- 4🇪🇸Lamine Yamal0.30 /g3 in 10
Expected MVP
- 1🇪🇸Rodri90%9/10
- 2🇦🇷Lionel Messi10%1/10
All 10 simulations
Click a row to inspect| Run | Score | Winner | Top scorer(s) | MVP | vs reality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | 2–1 | 🇪🇸 Spain | Mikel Oyarzabal, Lionel Messi, Dani Olmo | Rodri | Winner |
| #2 | 2–1 | 🇪🇸 Spain | Mikel Oyarzabal, Lionel Messi, Lamine Yamal | Rodri | Winner |
| #3 | 1–0 | 🇪🇸 Spain | Mikel Oyarzabal | Rodri | Exact |
| #4 | 1–2 | 🇦🇷 Argentina | Mikel Oyarzabal, Lionel Messi, Lautaro Martinez | Lionel Messi | Wrong |
| #5 | 2–1 | 🇪🇸 Spain | Mikel Oyarzabal, Lionel Messi, Lamine Yamal | Rodri | Winner |
| #6 | 2–1 | 🇪🇸 Spain | Lamine Yamal, Mikel Oyarzabal, Lionel Messi | Rodri | Winner |
| #7 | 2–1 | 🇪🇸 Spain | Mikel Oyarzabal, Lionel Messi, Lamine Yamal | Rodri | Winner |
| #8 | 1–0 | 🇪🇸 Spain | Mikel Oyarzabal | Rodri | Exact |
| #9 | 2–1 | 🇪🇸 Spain | Lamine Yamal, Mikel Oyarzabal, Lionel Messi | Rodri | Winner |
| #10 | 2–1 | 🇪🇸 Spain | Lamine Yamal, Mikel Oyarzabal, Lionel Messi | Rodri | Winner |