AIWC26 · LumenIA
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xAI

Grok 4.20

xAI

10 independent simulations of the WC26 Final. Numbers below are averaged over the 10 runs (expected values).

Modal score
2–1
50% of runs
xG · Spain
1.50
🇪🇸 Spain
xG · Argentina
1.40
🇦🇷 Argentina
Accuracy vs reality
25.0%
0/10 exact score
Outcome distribution across 10 runs
🇪🇸 Spain: 50%Draw: 10%🇦🇷 Argentina: 40%
Expected scorers
  • 1🇪🇸Lamine Yamal
    1.00 /g
    10 in 10
  • 2🇦🇷Lionel Messi
    1.00 /g
    10 in 10
  • 3🇦🇷Lautaro Martinez
    0.40 /g
    4 in 10
  • 4🇪🇸Nico Williams
    0.20 /g
    2 in 10
  • 5🇪🇸Dani Olmo
    0.10 /g
    1 in 10
Expected assists
  • 1🇪🇸Pedri
    1.00 /g
    10 in 10
  • 2🇦🇷Julian Alvarez
    0.50 /g
    5 in 10
  • 3🇦🇷Alexis Mac Allister
    0.50 /g
    5 in 10
  • 4🇦🇷Lionel Messi
    0.20 /g
    2 in 10
  • 5🇪🇸Nico Williams
    0.20 /g
    2 in 10
Expected MVP
  • 1🇦🇷Lionel Messi
    50%
    5/10
  • 2🇪🇸Lamine Yamal
    40%
    4/10
  • 3🇪🇸Rodri
    10%
    1/10

All 10 simulations

Click a row to inspect
RunScoreWinnerTop scorer(s)MVPvs reality
#11–1DrawLamine Yamal, Lionel MessiLionel MessiWrong
#22–1🇪🇸 SpainLamine Yamal, Lionel Messi, Dani OlmoLamine YamalWinner
#31–2🇦🇷 ArgentinaLamine Yamal, Lionel Messi, Lautaro MartinezLionel MessiWrong
#41–2🇦🇷 ArgentinaLamine Yamal, Lionel Messi, Lautaro MartinezLionel MessiWrong
#52–1🇪🇸 SpainLamine Yamal, Ferran Torres, Lionel MessiLamine YamalWinner
#61–2🇦🇷 ArgentinaLamine Yamal, Lionel Messi, Lautaro MartinezLionel MessiWrong
#72–1🇪🇸 SpainLamine Yamal, Lionel Messi, Nico WilliamsLamine YamalWinner
#82–1🇪🇸 SpainLamine Yamal, Lionel Messi, Nico WilliamsLamine YamalWinner
#91–2🇦🇷 ArgentinaLamine Yamal, Lionel Messi, Lautaro MartinezLionel MessiWrong
#102–1🇪🇸 SpainLamine Yamal, Mikel Oyarzabal, Lionel MessiRodriWinner