AIWC26 · LumenIA
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OpenAI

GPT-5 Nano

OpenAI

10 independent simulations of the WC26 Final. Numbers below are averaged over the 10 runs (expected values).

Modal score
0–0
40% of runs
xG · Spain
1.30
🇪🇸 Spain
xG · Argentina
0.90
🇦🇷 Argentina
Accuracy vs reality
20.0%
0/10 exact score
Outcome distribution across 10 runs
🇪🇸 Spain: 40%Draw: 60%🇦🇷 Argentina: 0%
Expected scorers
  • 1🇪🇸Lamine Yamal
    0.90 /g
    9 in 10
  • 2🇦🇷Lionel Messi
    0.90 /g
    9 in 10
  • 3🇪🇸Dani Olmo
    0.70 /g
    7 in 10
  • 4🇦🇷Lautaro Martinez
    0.60 /g
    6 in 10
  • 5🇪🇸Pedro Porro
    0.20 /g
    2 in 10
Expected assists
  • 1🇪🇸Pedri
    0.80 /g
    8 in 10
  • 2🇦🇷Lionel Messi
    0.50 /g
    5 in 10
  • 3🇪🇸Dani Olmo
    0.50 /g
    5 in 10
  • 4🇪🇸Lamine Yamal
    0.30 /g
    3 in 10
  • 5🇦🇷Enzo Fernandez
    0.20 /g
    2 in 10
Expected MVP
  • 1🇪🇸Lamine Yamal
    80%
    8/10
  • 2🇦🇷Lionel Messi
    10%
    1/10
  • 3🇪🇸Dani Olmo
    10%
    1/10

All 10 simulations

Click a row to inspect
RunScoreWinnerTop scorer(s)MVPvs reality
#12–2DrawDani Olmo, Lautaro Martinez, Lamine Yamal, Lionel MessiLamine YamalWrong
#22–2DrawLamine Yamal, Lionel Messi, Dani Olmo, Lautaro MartinezLamine YamalWrong
#33–2🇪🇸 SpainLamine Yamal, Lionel Messi, Dani Olmo, Lautaro Martinez, Ferran TorresLamine YamalWinner
#42–1🇪🇸 SpainLamine Yamal, Dani Olmo, Lionel MessiLamine YamalWinner
#50–0DrawLamine Yamal, Lionel Messi, Lautaro Martinez, Dani OlmoLionel MessiWrong
#62–1🇪🇸 SpainLamine Yamal, Lionel Messi, Dani OlmoDani OlmoWinner
#70–0DrawLamine Yamal, Nico Williams, Lautaro MartinezLamine YamalWrong
#82–1🇪🇸 SpainMikel Oyarzabal, Pedro Porro, Lionel MessiLamine YamalWinner
#90–0DrawLamine Yamal, Pedro Porro, Lionel MessiLamine YamalWrong
#100–0DrawLamine Yamal, Lionel Messi, Dani Olmo, Lautaro MartinezLamine YamalWrong