AIWC26 · LumenIA
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OpenAI

GPT-5 Mini

OpenAI

10 independent simulations of the WC26 Final. Numbers below are averaged over the 10 runs (expected values).

Modal score
2–2
60% of runs
xG · Spain
1.60
🇪🇸 Spain
xG · Argentina
1.70
🇦🇷 Argentina
Accuracy vs reality
0.0%
0/10 exact score
Outcome distribution across 10 runs
🇪🇸 Spain: 0%Draw: 90%🇦🇷 Argentina: 10%
Expected scorers
  • 1🇦🇷Lionel Messi
    0.90 /g
    9 in 10
  • 2🇪🇸Lamine Yamal
    0.80 /g
    8 in 10
  • 3🇦🇷Lautaro Martinez
    0.60 /g
    6 in 10
  • 4🇪🇸Mikel Oyarzabal
    0.40 /g
    4 in 10
  • 5🇪🇸Ferran Torres
    0.20 /g
    2 in 10
Expected assists
  • 1🇪🇸Pedri
    0.90 /g
    9 in 10
  • 2🇦🇷Enzo Fernandez
    0.50 /g
    5 in 10
  • 3🇦🇷Julian Alvarez
    0.40 /g
    4 in 10
  • 4🇪🇸Rodri
    0.20 /g
    2 in 10
  • 5🇦🇷Lionel Messi
    0.20 /g
    2 in 10
Expected MVP
  • 1🇦🇷Lionel Messi
    70%
    7/10
  • 2🇦🇷Emiliano Martinez
    20%
    2/10
  • 3🇪🇸Lamine Yamal
    10%
    1/10

All 10 simulations

Click a row to inspect
RunScoreWinnerTop scorer(s)MVPvs reality
#12–2DrawMikel Oyarzabal, Lionel Messi, Lamine Yamal, Lautaro MartinezLionel MessiWrong
#21–1DrawLamine Yamal, Lionel MessiLionel MessiWrong
#32–2DrawMikel Oyarzabal, Lionel MessiLionel MessiWrong
#42–2DrawMikel Oyarzabal, Lionel Messi, Lamine Yamal, Lautaro MartinezLionel MessiWrong
#51–1DrawLamine Yamal, Lautaro MartinezEmiliano MartinezWrong
#61–2🇦🇷 ArgentinaMikel Oyarzabal, Lionel Messi, Lautaro MartinezLionel MessiWrong
#72–2DrawLamine Yamal, Lionel Messi, Ferran Torres, Lautaro MartinezEmiliano MartinezWrong
#82–2DrawLamine Yamal, Lionel MessiLionel MessiWrong
#91–1DrawLamine Yamal, Lionel MessiLamine YamalWrong
#102–2DrawLamine Yamal, Ferran Torres, Lionel Messi, Lautaro MartinezLionel MessiWrong