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OpenAI

GPT-5.5

OpenAI

10 independent simulations of the WC26 Final. Numbers below are averaged over the 10 runs (expected values).

Modal score
2–1
80% of runs
xG · Spain
1.80
🇪🇸 Spain
xG · Argentina
1.00
🇦🇷 Argentina
Accuracy vs reality
84.7%
0/10 exact score
Outcome distribution across 10 runs
🇪🇸 Spain: 80%Draw: 20%🇦🇷 Argentina: 0%
Expected scorers
  • 1🇦🇷Lionel Messi
    0.90 /g
    9 in 10
  • 2🇪🇸Mikel Oyarzabal
    0.80 /g
    8 in 10
  • 3🇪🇸Lamine Yamal
    0.80 /g
    8 in 10
  • 4🇪🇸Dani Olmo
    0.20 /g
    2 in 10
  • 5🇦🇷Lautaro Martinez
    0.10 /g
    1 in 10
Expected assists
  • 1🇪🇸Dani Olmo
    0.40 /g
    4 in 10
  • 2🇪🇸Pedri
    0.40 /g
    4 in 10
  • 3🇪🇸Nico Williams
    0.20 /g
    2 in 10
  • 4🇪🇸Lamine Yamal
    0.20 /g
    2 in 10
  • 5🇪🇸Alex Baena
    0.20 /g
    2 in 10
Expected MVP
  • 1🇪🇸Rodri
    70%
    7/10
  • 2🇪🇸Unai Simon
    20%
    2/10
  • 3🇪🇸Lamine Yamal
    10%
    1/10

All 10 simulations

Click a row to inspect
RunScoreWinnerTop scorer(s)MVPvs reality
#12–1🇪🇸 SpainMikel Oyarzabal, Lionel Messi, Lamine YamalRodriWinner
#22–1🇪🇸 SpainLamine Yamal, Lionel Messi, Mikel OyarzabalRodriWinner
#31–1DrawLamine Yamal, Lautaro MartinezUnai SimonWrong
#42–1🇪🇸 SpainLamine Yamal, Lionel Messi, Mikel OyarzabalLamine YamalWinner
#52–1🇪🇸 SpainMikel Oyarzabal, Lionel Messi, Lamine YamalRodriWinner
#62–1🇪🇸 SpainLamine Yamal, Lionel Messi, Mikel OyarzabalRodriWinner
#72–1🇪🇸 SpainMikel Oyarzabal, Lionel Messi, Dani OlmoRodriWinner
#82–1🇪🇸 SpainMikel Oyarzabal, Lionel Messi, Lamine YamalRodriWinner
#92–1🇪🇸 SpainLionel Messi, Mikel Oyarzabal, Dani OlmoRodriWinner
#101–1DrawLamine Yamal, Lionel MessiUnai SimonWrong