AIWC26 · LumenIA
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GLM 5.2

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10 independent simulations of the WC26 Final. Numbers below are averaged over the 10 runs (expected values).

Modal score
2–1
50% of runs
xG · Spain
1.90
🇪🇸 Spain
xG · Argentina
0.60
🇦🇷 Argentina
Accuracy vs reality
45.0%
0/10 exact score
Outcome distribution across 10 runs
🇪🇸 Spain: 90%Draw: 10%🇦🇷 Argentina: 0%
Expected scorers
  • 1🇪🇸Mikel Oyarzabal
    1.00 /g
    10 in 10
  • 2🇪🇸Lamine Yamal
    0.70 /g
    7 in 10
  • 3🇦🇷Lionel Messi
    0.60 /g
    6 in 10
  • 4🇪🇸Marcos Llorente
    0.10 /g
    1 in 10
  • 5🇪🇸Dani Olmo
    0.10 /g
    1 in 10
Expected assists
  • 1🇪🇸Lamine Yamal
    0.60 /g
    6 in 10
  • 2🇪🇸Dani Olmo
    0.50 /g
    5 in 10
  • 3🇦🇷Julian Alvarez
    0.40 /g
    4 in 10
  • 4🇪🇸Fabian Ruiz
    0.40 /g
    4 in 10
  • 5🇪🇸Rodri
    0.30 /g
    3 in 10
Expected MVP
  • 1🇪🇸Rodri
    70%
    7/10
  • 2🇪🇸Lamine Yamal
    20%
    2/10
  • 3🇦🇷Emiliano Martinez
    10%
    1/10

All 10 simulations

Click a row to inspect
RunScoreWinnerTop scorer(s)MVPvs reality
#12–1🇪🇸 SpainMikel Oyarzabal, Lionel Messi, Lamine YamalLamine YamalWinner
#22–0🇪🇸 SpainMikel Oyarzabal, Lamine YamalRodriWinner
#32–1🇪🇸 SpainMikel Oyarzabal, Lionel Messi, Lamine YamalLamine YamalWinner
#42–0🇪🇸 SpainMikel Oyarzabal, Lamine YamalRodriWinner
#52–1🇪🇸 SpainLionel Messi, Mikel Oyarzabal, Marcos LlorenteRodriWinner
#62–1🇪🇸 SpainMikel Oyarzabal, Lionel Messi, Lamine YamalRodriWinner
#72–0🇪🇸 SpainMikel Oyarzabal, Lamine YamalRodriWinner
#82–0🇪🇸 SpainMikel Oyarzabal, Lamine YamalRodriWinner
#92–1🇪🇸 SpainMikel Oyarzabal, Lionel Messi, Dani OlmoRodriWinner
#101–1DrawMikel Oyarzabal, Lionel MessiEmiliano MartinezWrong