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Gemini 2.5 Pro
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10 independent simulations of the WC26 Final. Numbers below are averaged over the 10 runs (expected values).
Modal score
1–0
80% of runs
xG · Spain
1.10
🇪🇸 Spain
xG · Argentina
0.20
🇦🇷 Argentina
Accuracy vs reality
85.0%
8/10 exact score
Outcome distribution across 10 runs
🇪🇸 Spain: 90%Draw: 10%🇦🇷 Argentina: 0%
Expected scorers
- 1🇪🇸Mikel Oyarzabal1.00 /g10 in 10
- 2🇦🇷Lionel Messi0.20 /g2 in 10
Expected assists
- 1🇪🇸Dani Olmo0.80 /g8 in 10
- 2🇪🇸Lamine Yamal0.20 /g2 in 10
- 3🇦🇷Julian Alvarez0.10 /g1 in 10
Expected MVP
- 1🇪🇸Rodri90%9/10
- 2🇦🇷Emiliano Martinez10%1/10
All 10 simulations
Click a row to inspect| Run | Score | Winner | Top scorer(s) | MVP | vs reality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | 1–0 | 🇪🇸 Spain | Mikel Oyarzabal | Rodri | Exact |
| #2 | 1–0 | 🇪🇸 Spain | Mikel Oyarzabal | Rodri | Exact |
| #3 | 2–1 | 🇪🇸 Spain | Lionel Messi, Mikel Oyarzabal | Rodri | Winner |
| #4 | 1–0 | 🇪🇸 Spain | Mikel Oyarzabal | Rodri | Exact |
| #5 | 1–0 | 🇪🇸 Spain | Mikel Oyarzabal | Rodri | Exact |
| #6 | 1–0 | 🇪🇸 Spain | Mikel Oyarzabal | Rodri | Exact |
| #7 | 1–0 | 🇪🇸 Spain | Mikel Oyarzabal | Rodri | Exact |
| #8 | 1–1 | Draw | Mikel Oyarzabal, Lionel Messi | Emiliano Martinez | Wrong |
| #9 | 1–0 | 🇪🇸 Spain | Mikel Oyarzabal | Rodri | Exact |
| #10 | 1–0 | 🇪🇸 Spain | Mikel Oyarzabal | Rodri | Exact |