AIWC26 · LumenIA
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Gemini 2.5 Flash Lite

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10 independent simulations of the WC26 Final. Numbers below are averaged over the 10 runs (expected values).

Modal score
2–1
50% of runs
xG · Spain
1.60
🇪🇸 Spain
xG · Argentina
0.50
🇦🇷 Argentina
Accuracy vs reality
70.0%
4/10 exact score
Outcome distribution across 10 runs
🇪🇸 Spain: 100%Draw: 0%🇦🇷 Argentina: 0%
Expected scorers
  • 1🇪🇸Mikel Oyarzabal
    1.00 /g
    10 in 10
  • 2🇦🇷Lionel Messi
    0.50 /g
    5 in 10
  • 3🇪🇸Rodri
    0.50 /g
    5 in 10
  • 4🇪🇸Lamine Yamal
    0.10 /g
    1 in 10
Expected assists
  • 1🇪🇸Lamine Yamal
    0.80 /g
    8 in 10
  • 2🇪🇸Dani Olmo
    0.50 /g
    5 in 10
  • 3🇦🇷Lautaro Martinez
    0.30 /g
    3 in 10
  • 4🇦🇷Alexis Mac Allister
    0.20 /g
    2 in 10
  • 5🇪🇸Fabian Ruiz
    0.10 /g
    1 in 10
Expected MVP
  • 1🇪🇸Rodri
    100%
    10/10

All 10 simulations

Click a row to inspect
RunScoreWinnerTop scorer(s)MVPvs reality
#12–1🇪🇸 SpainMikel Oyarzabal, Lionel Messi, RodriRodriWinner
#21–0🇪🇸 SpainMikel OyarzabalRodriExact
#31–0🇪🇸 SpainMikel OyarzabalRodriExact
#42–1🇪🇸 SpainMikel Oyarzabal, Lionel Messi, RodriRodriWinner
#52–1🇪🇸 SpainMikel Oyarzabal, Lionel Messi, RodriRodriWinner
#61–0🇪🇸 SpainMikel OyarzabalRodriExact
#72–0🇪🇸 SpainMikel Oyarzabal, RodriRodriWinner
#81–0🇪🇸 SpainMikel OyarzabalRodriExact
#92–1🇪🇸 SpainMikel Oyarzabal, Lionel Messi, RodriRodriWinner
#102–1🇪🇸 SpainMikel Oyarzabal, Lionel Messi, Lamine YamalRodriWinner