AIWC26 · LumenIA
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Gemini 2.5 Flash

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10 independent simulations of the WC26 Final. Numbers below are averaged over the 10 runs (expected values).

Modal score
2–0
50% of runs
xG · Spain
1.80
🇪🇸 Spain
xG · Argentina
0.50
🇦🇷 Argentina
Accuracy vs reality
50.0%
1/10 exact score
Outcome distribution across 10 runs
🇪🇸 Spain: 90%Draw: 0%🇦🇷 Argentina: 10%
Expected scorers
  • 1🇪🇸Mikel Oyarzabal
    1.00 /g
    10 in 10
  • 2🇪🇸Dani Olmo
    0.70 /g
    7 in 10
  • 3🇦🇷Lionel Messi
    0.40 /g
    4 in 10
  • 4🇦🇷Lautaro Martinez
    0.10 /g
    1 in 10
  • 5🇪🇸Lamine Yamal
    0.10 /g
    1 in 10
Expected assists
  • 1🇪🇸Lamine Yamal
    0.80 /g
    8 in 10
  • 2🇪🇸Rodri
    0.60 /g
    6 in 10
  • 3🇦🇷Julian Alvarez
    0.20 /g
    2 in 10
  • 4🇪🇸Fabian Ruiz
    0.20 /g
    2 in 10
  • 5🇦🇷Lionel Messi
    0.10 /g
    1 in 10
Expected MVP
  • 1🇪🇸Rodri
    90%
    9/10
  • 2🇦🇷Lionel Messi
    10%
    1/10

All 10 simulations

Click a row to inspect
RunScoreWinnerTop scorer(s)MVPvs reality
#11–2🇦🇷 ArgentinaMikel Oyarzabal, Lionel Messi, Lautaro MartinezLionel MessiWrong
#22–1🇪🇸 SpainLionel Messi, Mikel Oyarzabal, Dani OlmoRodriWinner
#32–0🇪🇸 SpainMikel Oyarzabal, Dani OlmoRodriWinner
#42–1🇪🇸 SpainMikel Oyarzabal, Lionel Messi, Dani OlmoRodriWinner
#52–1🇪🇸 SpainMikel Oyarzabal, Lionel Messi, Dani OlmoRodriWinner
#62–0🇪🇸 SpainMikel Oyarzabal, Dani OlmoRodriWinner
#72–0🇪🇸 SpainMikel Oyarzabal, Lamine YamalRodriWinner
#81–0🇪🇸 SpainMikel OyarzabalRodriExact
#92–0🇪🇸 SpainMikel Oyarzabal, Dani OlmoRodriWinner
#102–0🇪🇸 SpainMikel Oyarzabal, Dani OlmoRodriWinner