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10 independent simulations of the WC26 Final. Numbers below are averaged over the 10 runs (expected values).
Modal score
2–1
60% of runs
xG · Spain
1.90
🇪🇸 Spain
xG · Argentina
0.60
🇦🇷 Argentina
Accuracy vs reality
55.0%
1/10 exact score
Outcome distribution across 10 runs
🇪🇸 Spain: 100%Draw: 0%🇦🇷 Argentina: 0%
Expected scorers
- 1🇪🇸Mikel Oyarzabal0.90 /g9 in 10
- 2🇦🇷Lionel Messi0.60 /g6 in 10
- 3🇪🇸Lamine Yamal0.50 /g5 in 10
- 4🇪🇸Dani Olmo0.30 /g3 in 10
- 5🇪🇸Ferran Torres0.10 /g1 in 10
Expected assists
- 1🇪🇸Lamine Yamal0.60 /g6 in 10
- 2🇪🇸Dani Olmo0.50 /g5 in 10
- 3🇪🇸Alex Baena0.40 /g4 in 10
- 4🇦🇷Rodrigo De Paul0.20 /g2 in 10
- 5🇦🇷Alexis Mac Allister0.20 /g2 in 10
Expected MVP
- 1🇪🇸Rodri100%10/10
All 10 simulations
Click a row to inspect| Run | Score | Winner | Top scorer(s) | MVP | vs reality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | 2–1 | 🇪🇸 Spain | Mikel Oyarzabal, Lamine Yamal, Lionel Messi | Rodri | Winner |
| #2 | 2–1 | 🇪🇸 Spain | Mikel Oyarzabal, Lionel Messi, Dani Olmo | Rodri | Winner |
| #3 | 2–1 | 🇪🇸 Spain | Mikel Oyarzabal, Lionel Messi, Lamine Yamal | Rodri | Winner |
| #4 | 2–1 | 🇪🇸 Spain | Mikel Oyarzabal, Lionel Messi, Dani Olmo | Rodri | Winner |
| #5 | 2–0 | 🇪🇸 Spain | Mikel Oyarzabal, Lamine Yamal | Rodri | Winner |
| #6 | 1–0 | 🇪🇸 Spain | Mikel Oyarzabal | Rodri | Exact |
| #7 | 2–1 | 🇪🇸 Spain | Lionel Messi, Mikel Oyarzabal, Ferran Torres | Rodri | Winner |
| #8 | 2–0 | 🇪🇸 Spain | Mikel Oyarzabal, Lamine Yamal | Rodri | Winner |
| #9 | 2–1 | 🇪🇸 Spain | Lamine Yamal, Lionel Messi | Rodri | Winner |
| #10 | 2–0 | 🇪🇸 Spain | Mikel Oyarzabal, Dani Olmo | Rodri | Winner |