AIWC26 · LumenIA
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Anthropic

Claude Sonnet 4.6

Anthropic

10 independent simulations of the WC26 Final. Numbers below are averaged over the 10 runs (expected values).

Modal score
2–1
50% of runs
xG · Spain
1.50
🇪🇸 Spain
xG · Argentina
0.90
🇦🇷 Argentina
Accuracy vs reality
35.0%
1/10 exact score
Outcome distribution across 10 runs
🇪🇸 Spain: 60%Draw: 40%🇦🇷 Argentina: 0%
Expected scorers
  • 1🇪🇸Mikel Oyarzabal
    1.00 /g
    10 in 10
  • 2🇦🇷Lionel Messi
    0.80 /g
    8 in 10
  • 3🇪🇸Dani Olmo
    0.40 /g
    4 in 10
  • 4🇦🇷Lautaro Martinez
    0.10 /g
    1 in 10
  • 5🇪🇸Lamine Yamal
    0.10 /g
    1 in 10
Expected assists
  • 1🇪🇸Lamine Yamal
    0.90 /g
    9 in 10
  • 2🇦🇷Alexis Mac Allister
    0.30 /g
    3 in 10
  • 3🇪🇸Rodri
    0.30 /g
    3 in 10
  • 4🇦🇷Enzo Fernandez
    0.30 /g
    3 in 10
  • 5🇦🇷Julian Alvarez
    0.20 /g
    2 in 10
Expected MVP
  • 1🇪🇸Rodri
    60%
    6/10
  • 2🇪🇸Mikel Oyarzabal
    40%
    4/10

All 10 simulations

Click a row to inspect
RunScoreWinnerTop scorer(s)MVPvs reality
#12–1🇪🇸 SpainMikel Oyarzabal, Lionel Messi, Dani OlmoMikel OyarzabalWinner
#21–1DrawMikel Oyarzabal, Lionel MessiRodriWrong
#31–1DrawMikel Oyarzabal, Lionel MessiMikel OyarzabalWrong
#42–1🇪🇸 SpainMikel Oyarzabal, Lionel Messi, Dani OlmoMikel OyarzabalWinner
#51–1DrawMikel Oyarzabal, Lautaro MartinezRodriWrong
#62–1🇪🇸 SpainMikel Oyarzabal, Lionel Messi, Dani OlmoMikel OyarzabalWinner
#71–0🇪🇸 SpainMikel OyarzabalRodriExact
#82–1🇪🇸 SpainMikel Oyarzabal, Lionel Messi, Dani OlmoRodriWinner
#91–1DrawMikel Oyarzabal, Lionel MessiRodriWrong
#102–1🇪🇸 SpainLamine Yamal, Lionel Messi, Mikel OyarzabalRodriWinner