AIWC26 · LumenIA
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Anthropic

Claude Opus 4.8

Anthropic

10 independent simulations of the WC26 Final. Numbers below are averaged over the 10 runs (expected values).

Modal score
2–1
100% of runs
xG · Spain
2.00
🇪🇸 Spain
xG · Argentina
1.00
🇦🇷 Argentina
Accuracy vs reality
50.0%
0/10 exact score
Outcome distribution across 10 runs
🇪🇸 Spain: 100%Draw: 0%🇦🇷 Argentina: 0%
Expected scorers
  • 1🇪🇸Mikel Oyarzabal
    1.00 /g
    10 in 10
  • 2🇪🇸Lamine Yamal
    0.60 /g
    6 in 10
  • 3🇦🇷Lautaro Martinez
    0.50 /g
    5 in 10
  • 4🇦🇷Lionel Messi
    0.40 /g
    4 in 10
  • 5🇪🇸Dani Olmo
    0.40 /g
    4 in 10
Expected assists
  • 1🇪🇸Pedri
    0.90 /g
    9 in 10
  • 2🇪🇸Lamine Yamal
    0.80 /g
    8 in 10
  • 3🇦🇷Lionel Messi
    0.60 /g
    6 in 10
  • 4🇦🇷Julian Alvarez
    0.20 /g
    2 in 10
  • 5🇪🇸Dani Olmo
    0.20 /g
    2 in 10
Expected MVP
  • 1🇪🇸Lamine Yamal
    90%
    9/10
  • 2🇪🇸Pedri
    10%
    1/10

All 10 simulations

Click a row to inspect
RunScoreWinnerTop scorer(s)MVPvs reality
#12–1🇪🇸 SpainMikel Oyarzabal, Lionel Messi, Lamine YamalLamine YamalWinner
#22–1🇪🇸 SpainMikel Oyarzabal, Lautaro Martinez, Lamine YamalLamine YamalWinner
#32–1🇪🇸 SpainMikel Oyarzabal, Lionel Messi, Dani OlmoLamine YamalWinner
#42–1🇪🇸 SpainMikel Oyarzabal, Julian Alvarez, Dani OlmoLamine YamalWinner
#52–1🇪🇸 SpainMikel Oyarzabal, Lautaro Martinez, Dani OlmoLamine YamalWinner
#62–1🇪🇸 SpainMikel Oyarzabal, Lautaro Martinez, Lamine YamalLamine YamalWinner
#72–1🇪🇸 SpainMikel Oyarzabal, Lionel Messi, Lamine YamalLamine YamalWinner
#82–1🇪🇸 SpainMikel Oyarzabal, Lautaro Martinez, Lamine YamalLamine YamalWinner
#92–1🇪🇸 SpainMikel Oyarzabal, Lautaro Martinez, Dani OlmoPedriWinner
#102–1🇪🇸 SpainMikel Oyarzabal, Lionel Messi, Lamine YamalLamine YamalWinner