AIWC26 · LumenIA
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Anthropic

Claude Haiku 4.5

Anthropic

10 independent simulations of the WC26 Final. Numbers below are averaged over the 10 runs (expected values).

Modal score
2–0
60% of runs
xG · Spain
1.80
🇪🇸 Spain
xG · Argentina
0.60
🇦🇷 Argentina
Accuracy vs reality
40.0%
0/10 exact score
Outcome distribution across 10 runs
🇪🇸 Spain: 80%Draw: 0%🇦🇷 Argentina: 20%
Expected scorers
  • 1🇪🇸Mikel Oyarzabal
    1.00 /g
    10 in 10
  • 2🇪🇸Lamine Yamal
    0.60 /g
    6 in 10
  • 3🇦🇷Lautaro Martinez
    0.30 /g
    3 in 10
  • 4🇦🇷Lionel Messi
    0.30 /g
    3 in 10
  • 5🇪🇸Dani Olmo
    0.20 /g
    2 in 10
Expected assists
  • 1🇪🇸Rodri
    0.70 /g
    7 in 10
  • 2🇪🇸Dani Olmo
    0.30 /g
    3 in 10
  • 3🇪🇸Alex Baena
    0.30 /g
    3 in 10
  • 4🇪🇸Lamine Yamal
    0.30 /g
    3 in 10
  • 5🇦🇷Nicolas Gonzalez
    0.20 /g
    2 in 10
Expected MVP
  • 1🇪🇸Rodri
    80%
    8/10
  • 2🇦🇷Lionel Messi
    20%
    2/10

All 10 simulations

Click a row to inspect
RunScoreWinnerTop scorer(s)MVPvs reality
#12–1🇪🇸 SpainMikel Oyarzabal, Lamine Yamal, Lautaro MartinezRodriWinner
#22–0🇪🇸 SpainMikel Oyarzabal, Lamine YamalRodriWinner
#32–0🇪🇸 SpainMikel Oyarzabal, Lamine YamalRodriWinner
#41–2🇦🇷 ArgentinaLionel Messi, Lautaro Martinez, Mikel OyarzabalLionel MessiWrong
#52–0🇪🇸 SpainMikel Oyarzabal, Dani OlmoRodriWinner
#62–0🇪🇸 SpainMikel Oyarzabal, Lamine YamalRodriWinner
#71–2🇦🇷 ArgentinaLautaro Martinez, Lionel Messi, Mikel OyarzabalLionel MessiWrong
#82–0🇪🇸 SpainMikel Oyarzabal, Lamine YamalRodriWinner
#92–1🇪🇸 SpainMikel Oyarzabal, Dani Olmo, Lionel MessiRodriWinner
#102–0🇪🇸 SpainMikel Oyarzabal, Lamine YamalRodriWinner