AIWC26 · LumenIA
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Anthropic

Claude Fable 5

Anthropic

10 independent simulations of the WC26 Final. Numbers below are averaged over the 10 runs (expected values).

Modal score
2–1
100% of runs
xG · Spain
2.00
🇪🇸 Spain
xG · Argentina
1.00
🇦🇷 Argentina
Accuracy vs reality
50.0%
0/10 exact score
Outcome distribution across 10 runs
🇪🇸 Spain: 100%Draw: 0%🇦🇷 Argentina: 0%
Expected scorers
  • 1🇪🇸Mikel Oyarzabal
    1.00 /g
    10 in 10
  • 2🇦🇷Lionel Messi
    0.60 /g
    6 in 10
  • 3🇪🇸Mikel Merino
    0.60 /g
    6 in 10
  • 4🇦🇷Lautaro Martinez
    0.40 /g
    4 in 10
  • 5🇪🇸Lamine Yamal
    0.30 /g
    3 in 10
Expected assists
  • 1🇪🇸Lamine Yamal
    0.70 /g
    7 in 10
  • 2🇪🇸Pedri
    0.50 /g
    5 in 10
  • 3🇦🇷Lionel Messi
    0.40 /g
    4 in 10
  • 4🇪🇸Dani Olmo
    0.30 /g
    3 in 10
  • 5🇦🇷Rodrigo De Paul
    0.30 /g
    3 in 10
Expected MVP
  • 1🇪🇸Mikel Oyarzabal
    70%
    7/10
  • 2🇪🇸Rodri
    20%
    2/10
  • 3🇪🇸Pedri
    10%
    1/10

All 10 simulations

Click a row to inspect
RunScoreWinnerTop scorer(s)MVPvs reality
#12–1🇪🇸 SpainMikel Oyarzabal, Lionel Messi, Mikel MerinoPedriWinner
#22–1🇪🇸 SpainMikel Oyarzabal, Lionel Messi, Mikel MerinoMikel OyarzabalWinner
#32–1🇪🇸 SpainMikel Oyarzabal, Lamine Yamal, Lautaro MartinezMikel OyarzabalWinner
#42–1🇪🇸 SpainMikel Oyarzabal, Lionel Messi, Mikel MerinoRodriWinner
#52–1🇪🇸 SpainMikel Oyarzabal, Lamine Yamal, Lautaro MartinezMikel OyarzabalWinner
#62–1🇪🇸 SpainMikel Oyarzabal, Lamine Yamal, Lautaro MartinezMikel OyarzabalWinner
#72–1🇪🇸 SpainMikel Oyarzabal, Lautaro Martinez, Mikel MerinoMikel OyarzabalWinner
#82–1🇪🇸 SpainMikel Oyarzabal, Lionel Messi, Mikel MerinoRodriWinner
#92–1🇪🇸 SpainMikel Oyarzabal, Lionel MessiMikel OyarzabalWinner
#102–1🇪🇸 SpainMikel Oyarzabal, Lionel Messi, Mikel MerinoMikel OyarzabalWinner