AIWC26 · LumenIA
← Final Test
OpenAI

GPT-5 Nano

OpenAI

10 independent simulations of the WC26 Final. Numbers below are averaged over the 10 runs (expected values).

Modal score
2–1
30% of runs
xG · Spain
1.30
🇪🇸 Spain
xG · Argentina
1.00
🇦🇷 Argentina
Accuracy vs reality
15.0%
0/10 exact score
Outcome distribution across 10 runs
🇪🇸 Spain: 30%Draw: 70%🇦🇷 Argentina: 0%
Expected scorers
  • 1🇦🇷Lionel Messi
    0.90 /g
    9 in 10
  • 2🇪🇸Mikel Oyarzabal
    0.60 /g
    6 in 10
  • 3🇪🇸Pedro Porro
    0.60 /g
    6 in 10
  • 4🇦🇷Lautaro Martinez
    0.50 /g
    5 in 10
  • 5🇪🇸Dani Olmo
    0.50 /g
    5 in 10
Expected assists
  • 1🇪🇸Dani Olmo
    0.60 /g
    6 in 10
  • 2🇪🇸Mikel Merino
    0.40 /g
    4 in 10
  • 3🇦🇷Lautaro Martinez
    0.40 /g
    4 in 10
  • 4🇪🇸Pedri
    0.40 /g
    4 in 10
  • 5🇦🇷Nicolas Gonzalez
    0.30 /g
    3 in 10
Expected MVP
  • 1🇪🇸Lamine Yamal
    50%
    5/10
  • 2🇦🇷Lionel Messi
    30%
    3/10
  • 3🇪🇸Mikel Oyarzabal
    20%
    2/10

All 10 simulations

Click a row to inspect
RunScoreWinnerTop scorer(s)MVPvs reality
#12–1🇪🇸 SpainMikel Oyarzabal, Pedro Porro, Lionel MessiLamine YamalWinner
#22–2DrawMikel Oyarzabal, Pedro Porro, Lionel Messi, Lautaro MartinezLionel MessiWrong
#30–0DrawMikel Oyarzabal, Lionel MessiLamine YamalWrong
#40–0DrawMikel Oyarzabal, Dani Olmo, Lionel Messi, Lautaro MartinezMikel OyarzabalWrong
#52–1🇪🇸 SpainLamine Yamal, Pedro Porro, Lionel MessiLamine YamalWinner
#61–1DrawLamine Yamal, Pedro Porro, Lionel Messi, Lautaro Martinez, Dani Olmo, Julian AlvarezLionel MessiWrong
#72–2DrawLamine Yamal, Dani Olmo, Lionel Messi, Lautaro MartinezLamine YamalWrong
#82–2DrawPedro Porro, Lionel Messi, Dani Olmo, Lautaro MartinezLionel MessiWrong
#92–1🇪🇸 SpainMikel Oyarzabal, Pedro Porro, Lionel MessiMikel OyarzabalWinner
#100–0DrawLamine Yamal, Mikel Oyarzabal, Dani OlmoLamine YamalWrong