AIWC26 · LumenIA
← Final Test
OpenAI

GPT-5 Mini

OpenAI

10 independent simulations of the WC26 Final. Numbers below are averaged over the 10 runs (expected values).

Modal score
2–1
40% of runs
xG · Spain
1.40
🇪🇸 Spain
xG · Argentina
1.30
🇦🇷 Argentina
Accuracy vs reality
20.0%
0/10 exact score
Outcome distribution across 10 runs
🇪🇸 Spain: 40%Draw: 30%🇦🇷 Argentina: 30%
Expected scorers
  • 1🇪🇸Mikel Oyarzabal
    1.00 /g
    10 in 10
  • 2🇦🇷Lionel Messi
    0.90 /g
    9 in 10
  • 3🇦🇷Lautaro Martinez
    0.30 /g
    3 in 10
  • 4🇪🇸Pedro Porro
    0.20 /g
    2 in 10
  • 5🇪🇸Lamine Yamal
    0.20 /g
    2 in 10
Expected assists
  • 1🇪🇸Pedri
    0.60 /g
    6 in 10
  • 2🇦🇷Enzo Fernandez
    0.50 /g
    5 in 10
  • 3🇦🇷Lionel Messi
    0.30 /g
    3 in 10
  • 4🇪🇸Rodri
    0.30 /g
    3 in 10
  • 5🇪🇸Dani Olmo
    0.20 /g
    2 in 10
Expected MVP
  • 1🇦🇷Lionel Messi
    50%
    5/10
  • 2🇪🇸Mikel Oyarzabal
    30%
    3/10
  • 3🇪🇸Lamine Yamal
    10%
    1/10
  • 4🇦🇷Emiliano Martinez
    10%
    1/10

All 10 simulations

Click a row to inspect
RunScoreWinnerTop scorer(s)MVPvs reality
#12–1🇪🇸 SpainMikel Oyarzabal, Pedro Porro, Lautaro MartinezMikel OyarzabalWinner
#22–1🇪🇸 SpainMikel Oyarzabal, Lamine Yamal, Lionel MessiLamine YamalWinner
#32–1🇪🇸 SpainMikel Oyarzabal, Lamine Yamal, Lionel MessiMikel OyarzabalWinner
#41–2🇦🇷 ArgentinaMikel Oyarzabal, Lionel MessiLionel MessiWrong
#51–2🇦🇷 ArgentinaMikel Oyarzabal, Lionel Messi, Lautaro MartinezLionel MessiWrong
#61–2🇦🇷 ArgentinaLionel Messi, Mikel Oyarzabal, Lautaro MartinezLionel MessiWrong
#71–1DrawMikel Oyarzabal, Lionel MessiLionel MessiWrong
#81–1DrawMikel Oyarzabal, Lionel MessiLionel MessiWrong
#92–1🇪🇸 SpainMikel Oyarzabal, Pedro Porro, Lionel MessiMikel OyarzabalWinner
#101–1DrawMikel Oyarzabal, Lionel MessiEmiliano MartinezWrong