AIWC26 · LumenIA
← Final Test
OpenAI

GPT-5.6 Terra

OpenAI

10 independent simulations of the WC26 Final. Numbers below are averaged over the 10 runs (expected values).

Modal score
2–1
50% of runs
xG · Spain
1.50
🇪🇸 Spain
xG · Argentina
0.70
🇦🇷 Argentina
Accuracy vs reality
55.0%
3/10 exact score
Outcome distribution across 10 runs
🇪🇸 Spain: 80%Draw: 20%🇦🇷 Argentina: 0%
Expected scorers
  • 1🇪🇸Mikel Oyarzabal
    1.00 /g
    10 in 10
  • 2🇦🇷Lionel Messi
    0.70 /g
    7 in 10
  • 3🇪🇸Lamine Yamal
    0.40 /g
    4 in 10
  • 4🇪🇸Dani Olmo
    0.10 /g
    1 in 10
Expected assists
  • 1🇪🇸Lamine Yamal
    0.70 /g
    7 in 10
  • 2🇪🇸Alex Baena
    0.20 /g
    2 in 10
  • 3🇪🇸Dani Olmo
    0.20 /g
    2 in 10
  • 4🇪🇸Pedro Porro
    0.20 /g
    2 in 10
  • 5🇦🇷Julian Alvarez
    0.20 /g
    2 in 10
Expected MVP
  • 1🇪🇸Rodri
    40%
    4/10
  • 2🇪🇸Mikel Oyarzabal
    20%
    2/10
  • 3🇪🇸Unai Simon
    20%
    2/10
  • 4🇪🇸Lamine Yamal
    10%
    1/10
  • 5🇪🇸Pedri
    10%
    1/10

All 10 simulations

Click a row to inspect
RunScoreWinnerTop scorer(s)MVPvs reality
#11–0🇪🇸 SpainMikel OyarzabalRodriExact
#22–1🇪🇸 SpainMikel Oyarzabal, Lionel Messi, Dani OlmoMikel OyarzabalWinner
#32–1🇪🇸 SpainMikel Oyarzabal, Lionel Messi, Lamine YamalMikel OyarzabalWinner
#41–0🇪🇸 SpainMikel OyarzabalRodriExact
#52–1🇪🇸 SpainMikel Oyarzabal, Lionel Messi, Lamine YamalLamine YamalWinner
#61–1DrawMikel Oyarzabal, Lionel MessiUnai SimonWrong
#71–0🇪🇸 SpainMikel OyarzabalRodriExact
#82–1🇪🇸 SpainLamine Yamal, Lionel Messi, Mikel OyarzabalRodriWinner
#91–1DrawMikel Oyarzabal, Lionel MessiUnai SimonWrong
#102–1🇪🇸 SpainMikel Oyarzabal, Lionel Messi, Lamine YamalPedriWinner