AIWC26 · LumenIA
← Final Test
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GLM 5.2

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10 independent simulations of the WC26 Final. Numbers below are averaged over the 10 runs (expected values).

Modal score
2–1
40% of runs
xG · Spain
1.50
🇪🇸 Spain
xG · Argentina
1.40
🇦🇷 Argentina
Accuracy vs reality
20.0%
0/10 exact score
Outcome distribution across 10 runs
🇪🇸 Spain: 40%Draw: 30%🇦🇷 Argentina: 30%
Expected scorers
  • 1🇦🇷Lionel Messi
    0.90 /g
    9 in 10
  • 2🇪🇸Mikel Oyarzabal
    0.70 /g
    7 in 10
  • 3🇪🇸Lamine Yamal
    0.50 /g
    5 in 10
  • 4🇦🇷Lautaro Martinez
    0.30 /g
    3 in 10
  • 5🇪🇸Nico Williams
    0.10 /g
    1 in 10
Expected assists
  • 1🇪🇸Lamine Yamal
    0.50 /g
    5 in 10
  • 2🇪🇸Pedri
    0.50 /g
    5 in 10
  • 3🇦🇷Enzo Fernandez
    0.40 /g
    4 in 10
  • 4🇦🇷Julian Alvarez
    0.20 /g
    2 in 10
  • 5🇪🇸Nico Williams
    0.20 /g
    2 in 10
Expected MVP
  • 1🇦🇷Lionel Messi
    50%
    5/10
  • 2🇪🇸Rodri
    30%
    3/10
  • 3🇪🇸Lamine Yamal
    10%
    1/10
  • 4🇦🇷Lautaro Martinez
    10%
    1/10

All 10 simulations

Click a row to inspect
RunScoreWinnerTop scorer(s)MVPvs reality
#12–2DrawMikel Oyarzabal, Lionel MessiLionel MessiWrong
#22–1🇪🇸 SpainLamine Yamal, Lionel MessiLamine YamalWinner
#32–1🇪🇸 SpainMikel Oyarzabal, Lionel Messi, Nico WilliamsRodriWinner
#41–2🇦🇷 ArgentinaMikel Oyarzabal, Lionel Messi, Lautaro MartinezLionel MessiWrong
#51–2🇦🇷 ArgentinaLamine Yamal, Enzo Fernandez, Lautaro MartinezLautaro MartinezWrong
#62–1🇪🇸 SpainMikel Oyarzabal, Lionel Messi, Lamine YamalRodriWinner
#71–2🇦🇷 ArgentinaMikel Oyarzabal, Lionel Messi, Lautaro MartinezLionel MessiWrong
#82–1🇪🇸 SpainMikel Oyarzabal, Lionel Messi, Lamine YamalRodriWinner
#91–1DrawLionel Messi, Lamine YamalLionel MessiWrong
#101–1DrawMikel Oyarzabal, Lionel MessiLionel MessiWrong