AIWC26 · LumenIA
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Gemini 2.5 Flash Lite

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10 independent simulations of the WC26 Final. Numbers below are averaged over the 10 runs (expected values).

Modal score
1–2
60% of runs
xG · Spain
1.40
🇪🇸 Spain
xG · Argentina
1.60
🇦🇷 Argentina
Accuracy vs reality
20.0%
0/10 exact score
Outcome distribution across 10 runs
🇪🇸 Spain: 40%Draw: 0%🇦🇷 Argentina: 60%
Expected scorers
  • 1🇪🇸Mikel Oyarzabal
    0.90 /g
    9 in 10
  • 2🇦🇷Lionel Messi
    0.90 /g
    9 in 10
  • 3🇦🇷Lautaro Martinez
    0.60 /g
    6 in 10
  • 4🇪🇸Pedri
    0.20 /g
    2 in 10
  • 5🇪🇸Nico Williams
    0.10 /g
    1 in 10
Expected assists
  • 1🇦🇷Rodrigo De Paul
    0.80 /g
    8 in 10
  • 2🇪🇸Pedri
    0.40 /g
    4 in 10
  • 3🇪🇸Lamine Yamal
    0.30 /g
    3 in 10
  • 4🇪🇸Gavi
    0.20 /g
    2 in 10
  • 5🇦🇷Lionel Messi
    0.20 /g
    2 in 10
Expected MVP
  • 1🇦🇷Lautaro Martinez
    60%
    6/10
  • 2🇪🇸Pedri
    20%
    2/10
  • 3🇪🇸Nico Williams
    10%
    1/10
  • 4🇪🇸Mikel Merino
    10%
    1/10

All 10 simulations

Click a row to inspect
RunScoreWinnerTop scorer(s)MVPvs reality
#12–1🇪🇸 SpainMikel Oyarzabal, Lionel Messi, PedriPedriWinner
#22–1🇪🇸 SpainLionel Messi, Mikel Oyarzabal, Nico WilliamsNico WilliamsWinner
#31–2🇦🇷 ArgentinaMikel Oyarzabal, Lionel Messi, Lautaro MartinezLautaro MartinezWrong
#42–1🇪🇸 SpainMikel Oyarzabal, Lionel Messi, Mikel MerinoMikel MerinoWinner
#51–2🇦🇷 ArgentinaMikel Oyarzabal, Lionel Messi, Lautaro MartinezLautaro MartinezWrong
#61–2🇦🇷 ArgentinaMikel Oyarzabal, Lionel Messi, Lautaro MartinezLautaro MartinezWrong
#71–2🇦🇷 ArgentinaMikel Oyarzabal, Lionel Messi, Lautaro MartinezLautaro MartinezWrong
#81–2🇦🇷 ArgentinaMikel Oyarzabal, Lautaro MartinezLautaro MartinezWrong
#92–1🇪🇸 SpainLionel Messi, Mikel Oyarzabal, PedriPedriWinner
#101–2🇦🇷 ArgentinaLamine Yamal, Lionel Messi, Lautaro MartinezLautaro MartinezWrong