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Gemini 2.5 Flash

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10 independent simulations of the WC26 Final. Numbers below are averaged over the 10 runs (expected values).

Modal score
1–2
100% of runs
xG · Spain
1.00
🇪🇸 Spain
xG · Argentina
2.00
🇦🇷 Argentina
Accuracy vs reality
63.4%
0/10 exact score
Outcome distribution across 10 runs
🇪🇸 Spain: 0%Draw: 0%🇦🇷 Argentina: 100%
Expected scorers
  • 1🇦🇷Lionel Messi
    0.90 /g
    9 in 10
  • 2🇦🇷Lautaro Martinez
    0.90 /g
    9 in 10
  • 3🇪🇸Mikel Oyarzabal
    0.50 /g
    5 in 10
  • 4🇪🇸Lamine Yamal
    0.40 /g
    4 in 10
  • 5🇦🇷Enzo Fernandez
    0.20 /g
    2 in 10
Expected assists
  • 1🇦🇷Lionel Messi
    0.80 /g
    8 in 10
  • 2🇪🇸Pedri
    0.50 /g
    5 in 10
  • 3🇦🇷Enzo Fernandez
    0.50 /g
    5 in 10
  • 4🇦🇷Julian Alvarez
    0.50 /g
    5 in 10
  • 5🇪🇸Lamine Yamal
    0.40 /g
    4 in 10
Expected MVP
  • 1🇦🇷Lionel Messi
    80%
    8/10
  • 2🇦🇷Lautaro Martinez
    20%
    2/10

All 10 simulations

Click a row to inspect
RunScoreWinnerTop scorer(s)MVPvs reality
#11–2🇦🇷 ArgentinaMikel Oyarzabal, Lionel Messi, Lautaro MartinezLionel MessiWrong
#21–2🇦🇷 ArgentinaDani Olmo, Lionel Messi, Enzo FernandezLionel MessiWrong
#31–2🇦🇷 ArgentinaMikel Oyarzabal, Lionel Messi, Lautaro MartinezLionel MessiWrong
#41–2🇦🇷 ArgentinaLamine Yamal, Lionel Messi, Lautaro MartinezLautaro MartinezWrong
#51–2🇦🇷 ArgentinaMikel Oyarzabal, Lionel Messi, Lautaro MartinezLionel MessiWrong
#61–2🇦🇷 ArgentinaLamine Yamal, Lionel Messi, Lautaro MartinezLionel MessiWrong
#71–2🇦🇷 ArgentinaLamine Yamal, Lionel Messi, Lautaro MartinezLionel MessiWrong
#81–2🇦🇷 ArgentinaLamine Yamal, Lionel Messi, Lautaro MartinezLionel MessiWrong
#91–2🇦🇷 ArgentinaMikel Oyarzabal, Enzo Fernandez, Lautaro MartinezLautaro MartinezWrong
#101–2🇦🇷 ArgentinaMikel Oyarzabal, Lionel Messi, Lautaro MartinezLionel MessiWrong