← Final Test
Anthropic

Claude Sonnet 4.6

Anthropic

10 independent simulations of the WC26 Final. Numbers below are averaged over the 10 runs (expected values).

Modal score
2–1
90% of runs
xG · Spain
2.00
🇪🇸 Spain
xG · Argentina
1.10
🇦🇷 Argentina
Accuracy vs reality
82.4%
0/10 exact score
Outcome distribution across 10 runs
🇪🇸 Spain: 90%Draw: 10%🇦🇷 Argentina: 0%
Expected scorers
  • 1🇪🇸Mikel Oyarzabal
    1.00 /g
    10 in 10
  • 2🇦🇷Lionel Messi
    0.70 /g
    7 in 10
  • 3🇪🇸Mikel Merino
    0.60 /g
    6 in 10
  • 4🇪🇸Lamine Yamal
    0.40 /g
    4 in 10
  • 5🇦🇷Lautaro Martinez
    0.40 /g
    4 in 10
Expected assists
  • 1🇪🇸Lamine Yamal
    0.80 /g
    8 in 10
  • 2🇪🇸Dani Olmo
    0.70 /g
    7 in 10
  • 3🇦🇷Lionel Messi
    0.40 /g
    4 in 10
  • 4🇪🇸Fabian Ruiz
    0.40 /g
    4 in 10
  • 5🇦🇷Alexis Mac Allister
    0.30 /g
    3 in 10
Expected MVP
  • 1🇪🇸Mikel Oyarzabal
    70%
    7/10
  • 2🇪🇸Lamine Yamal
    30%
    3/10

All 10 simulations

Click a row to inspect
RunScoreWinnerTop scorer(s)MVPvs reality
#12–1🇪🇸 SpainMikel Oyarzabal, Lamine Yamal, Lionel MessiLamine YamalWinner
#22–2DrawMikel Oyarzabal, Lionel Messi, Lamine Yamal, Lautaro MartinezLamine YamalWrong
#32–1🇪🇸 SpainMikel Oyarzabal, Lionel Messi, Mikel MerinoMikel OyarzabalWinner
#42–1🇪🇸 SpainMikel Oyarzabal, Lautaro Martinez, Mikel MerinoMikel OyarzabalWinner
#52–1🇪🇸 SpainMikel Oyarzabal, Lautaro Martinez, Mikel MerinoMikel OyarzabalWinner
#62–1🇪🇸 SpainLamine Yamal, Lionel Messi, Mikel OyarzabalLamine YamalWinner
#72–1🇪🇸 SpainMikel Oyarzabal, Lautaro Martinez, Lamine YamalMikel OyarzabalWinner
#82–1🇪🇸 SpainMikel Oyarzabal, Lionel Messi, Mikel MerinoMikel OyarzabalWinner
#92–1🇪🇸 SpainMikel Oyarzabal, Lionel Messi, Mikel MerinoMikel OyarzabalWinner
#102–1🇪🇸 SpainMikel Oyarzabal, Lionel Messi, Mikel MerinoMikel OyarzabalWinner