AIWC26 · LumenIA
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Anthropic

Claude Haiku 4.5

Anthropic

10 independent simulations of the WC26 Final. Numbers below are averaged over the 10 runs (expected values).

Modal score
1–2
100% of runs
xG · Spain
1.00
🇪🇸 Spain
xG · Argentina
2.00
🇦🇷 Argentina
Accuracy vs reality
0.0%
0/10 exact score
Outcome distribution across 10 runs
🇪🇸 Spain: 0%Draw: 0%🇦🇷 Argentina: 100%
Expected scorers
  • 1🇦🇷Lautaro Martinez
    1.00 /g
    10 in 10
  • 2🇪🇸Mikel Oyarzabal
    1.00 /g
    10 in 10
  • 3🇦🇷Lionel Messi
    0.80 /g
    8 in 10
  • 4🇦🇷Enzo Fernandez
    0.20 /g
    2 in 10
Expected assists
  • 1🇦🇷Enzo Fernandez
    0.70 /g
    7 in 10
  • 2🇦🇷Julian Alvarez
    0.60 /g
    6 in 10
  • 3🇦🇷Nicolas Gonzalez
    0.40 /g
    4 in 10
  • 4🇦🇷Alexis Mac Allister
    0.20 /g
    2 in 10
  • 5🇪🇸Nico Williams
    0.10 /g
    1 in 10
Expected MVP
  • 1🇦🇷Lionel Messi
    90%
    9/10
  • 2🇦🇷Lautaro Martinez
    10%
    1/10

All 10 simulations

Click a row to inspect
RunScoreWinnerTop scorer(s)MVPvs reality
#11–2🇦🇷 ArgentinaLionel Messi, Lautaro Martinez, Mikel OyarzabalLionel MessiWrong
#21–2🇦🇷 ArgentinaLionel Messi, Lautaro Martinez, Mikel OyarzabalLionel MessiWrong
#31–2🇦🇷 ArgentinaLautaro Martinez, Lionel Messi, Mikel OyarzabalLionel MessiWrong
#41–2🇦🇷 ArgentinaLautaro Martinez, Lionel Messi, Mikel OyarzabalLionel MessiWrong
#51–2🇦🇷 ArgentinaLautaro Martinez, Mikel Oyarzabal, Enzo FernandezLionel MessiWrong
#61–2🇦🇷 ArgentinaLautaro Martinez, Enzo Fernandez, Mikel OyarzabalLautaro MartinezWrong
#71–2🇦🇷 ArgentinaLionel Messi, Lautaro Martinez, Mikel OyarzabalLionel MessiWrong
#81–2🇦🇷 ArgentinaLionel Messi, Lautaro Martinez, Mikel OyarzabalLionel MessiWrong
#91–2🇦🇷 ArgentinaLionel Messi, Lautaro Martinez, Mikel OyarzabalLionel MessiWrong
#101–2🇦🇷 ArgentinaLionel Messi, Lautaro Martinez, Mikel OyarzabalLionel MessiWrong